Nepal Himalaya Disaster Warns World Of Risks Where Climate Change, Infrastructure, Geopolitics Collide

By Prof Sanjay Kaul

BOSTON, Sept 4: One year ago, I travelled to Kailash through the Himalayas. Standing amid those immense mountains, I was struck not only by their majesty, but by their fragility. The journey also made me acutely aware of how dependent people and infrastructure in these remote regions are on forces they can’t control. Today, as I watch the devastation unfolding in the Himalayas, the experience makes the story far more personal.

When a mountain moves, geopolitics suddenly looks very small. The devastating floods and landslides along Nepal’s northern frontier have brought tragedy to communities already living at the edge of one of the world’s most fragile environments. An ice-and-rock avalanche unleashed enormous quantities of water, mud and debris down Himalayan valleys, destroying homes, roads, bridges, hydropower facilities and critical border infrastructure.

The immediate story is one of human loss and rescue. But beyond the tragedy lies a larger question: What happens when ambitious infrastructure projects and geopolitical competition meet a Himalayan environment being rapidly transformed by climate change?

Nepal offers a warning. For generations, Nepal’s geography made India its principal economic lifeline. Its open southern border, established trade routes and deep cultural and social connections tied Nepal closely to India. China, separated from Nepal by some of the highest mountains on Earth, was naturally a more difficult economic partner.

That geography is changing. China’s Belt and Road Initiative has brought a new proposition to Kathmandu: roads, tunnels, power lines and cross-border connectivity that could give Nepal greater access to China and reduce its dependence on the southern route.

Nepal’s aspiration to become “land-linked” rather than landlocked is entirely understandable. A small country should have the freedom to diversify its economic relationships. But there is a difference between creating an economic corridor on a map and creating a resilient economic corridor.

In the Himalayas, resilience is not a luxury. It is the first requirement for connectivity. The Hindu Kush Himalaya is warming rapidly. The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development has reported that the region’s glaciers lost ice 65 percent faster during 2011–2020 than during the previous decade. Retreating glaciers, melting permafrost and unstable slopes are creating new hazards for communities and infrastructure downstream.

A road beside a Himalayan river is not simply a road. A bridge below an unstable slope is not simply a bridge. Every tunnel, hydropower plant and settlement must contend with earthquakes, monsoon rainfall, landslides, glacial lakes and increasingly unstable mountain terrain. It would be irresponsible to suggest that China caused the recent disaster. The immediate trigger appears to have been a natural ice-and-rock avalanche. But the catastrophe raises an equally important question: Are governments and developers adequately incorporating the changing Himalayan risk into the way strategic infrastructure is designed and built?

China has become exceptionally adept at turning infrastructure into geopolitical influence. Beijing understands that infrastructure does more than move people and goods. A railway changes markets. A highway changes trade routes. A power connection changes energy dependence. Over time, infrastructure can reshape a country’s economic orientation. That is one reason China’s Belt and Road Initiative matters far beyond the countries where individual projects are located. Nepal is an important part of that strategy. Better connectivity with China could give Kathmandu access to a huge northern market while reducing its historic dependence on India.

For Nepal, however, this need not mean choosing China over India. It can mean gaining choices.

India should understand that distinction. Rather than asking Nepal to remain within its traditional sphere of influence, New Delhi should compete through better infrastructure, energy cooperation, technology, tourism, and trade and disaster resilience.

The best response to Chinese influence is not to ask Nepal to choose India. It is to make India impossible to ignore. But Nepal also has responsibilities. Infrastructure financed or constructed by a foreign power still requires independent environmental assessment, geological analysis, transparent contracts, proper maintenance and rigorous safety standards.

The question is not who builds the road. The question is whether the road can survive the mountain. Could this tragedy have been prevented? Perhaps the avalanche itself could not. But some loss of life might have been reduced.

Modern technology can monitor glaciers, unstable slopes and rivers. Satellites can detect changes in terrain. Sensors can measure river levels. Radar can identify ground movement. Early-warning systems can give communities precious time to evacuate.

The technology exists. What is missing is cooperation. India, China and Nepal should establish a trans-Himalayan disaster-warning network, sharing real-time information on glaciers, rainfall, river levels, landslides and seismic activity.

A glacier does not stop at a national boundary. A river does not recognize a passport. An avalanche has no geopolitical allegiance.

There is also a lesson here for the United States.

China’s global influence increasingly comes not only from military strength or manufacturing, but from infrastructure, technology, energy systems, supply chains and connectivity. The Belt and Road Initiative represents an ambitious effort to shape how countries move goods, energy, people and information. The American response should not simply be to criticize China. The United States should offer developing countries credible alternatives: transparent financing, high engineering standards, climate-resilient infrastructure and partnerships that strengthen local capacity.

Nepal should not have to choose between economic development and environmental safety. Nor should it have to choose between its two giant neighbors. The tragedy should therefore not become another simplistic contest over whether China or India is winning the Himalayas. The deeper question is whether anyone wins if the infrastructure itself cannot survive the environment in which it is built. Nepal needs connectivity. China wants strategic access. India wants regional influence. All three interests are understandable.

But the mountains have their own rules.

A road that disappears every few years is not connectivity. It is an illusion of connectivity. The next generation of Himalayan infrastructure should be judged by one simple question:

Will it still be standing when the mountain moves?

That is Nepal’s warning, not only to China and India, but to all of us. The Himalayas are changing faster than our geopolitics. We need to build accordingly.

@ Sanjay Kaul is a professor of Energy Management at Fitchburg State University in Massachusetts.

Delhi battered by heavy rain; Connaught Place to IGI Airport waterlogged after downpour

NEW DELHI, Sept 4: Several Delhi areas were left flooded after several hours of rain choked the national capital on Friday afternoon. Visuals from places like Connaught Place, Akbar Road, Lajpat Nagar and areas around Indira Gandhi International Airport showed roads inundated, causing traffic snarls.

Delhi's turbulent weather also impacted flight operations as at least nine flights were diverted between 3:30 pm to4:30 pm.

More than 400 flights were delayed at the Delhi airport on Friday, according to information available on flight tracking website Flightradar24.com.

Delhi's iconic Connaught Place was inundated in rainwater as vehicles were seen wading through waterlogged roads.

Similar scenes were reported from the IGI airport and areas around it Delhi's shopping hub Lajpat Nagar.

Passengers at IGI airport faced inconvenience after heavy rain delayed flights and traffic snarls as roads were flooded. The IGI Airport is the country's busiest airport and handles more than 1,300 flight movements daily.

“There is a massive amount of water. I have been standing here for about half an hour and am waiting for the water level to go down so that I can make my way towards the arrival gates," Himanshi, a passenger, was quoted as saying.

Another passenger, Prabhash, was quoted as saying that he had witnessed waterlogging at the airport earlier as well.

“It happened once about two years ago, and now I am seeing it happen again this year. The rain is a little heavier this year. Since it is Janmashtami today, there are also puja celebrations,” he said.

On the situation at the airport, Prabhash said that work was underway and employees were working to clear the water.

“Work is going on at the airport and all the employees are working. Let us see what happens. The water will also be cleared; it should not take much time,” he said.

The IMD said that squall was reported at Palam airport in Delhi at around 10 am which lasted for 2 minutes.

The IMD has forecast a generally cloudy sky over Delhi, with one or two spells of light to moderate rain. Some areas may also receive heavy rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning.

The maximum temperature is likely to remain between 31°C and 33°C, according to the weather department.

The IMD has issued a Yellow Alert for Delhi, advising people to remain cautious as rain may lead to waterlogging in low-lying areas and underpasses. Traffic disruptions and delays in public transport are also likely in some parts of the city.

The weather department has advised commuters to check traffic updates before leaving and avoid areas near power lines and electrical wires during thunderstorms.