Record Heat Waves Push India Closer To Limit Of Human Survival

LONDON, March 27: India, on course to becoming the world's most-populous country, risks approaching the limit of human survival as it experiences more intense and frequent heat waves.

The national weather office has forecast rising temperatures in the coming weeks after India experienced its hottest February since 1901. That's stoked concerns that there will be a repeat of last year's record heat wave, which caused widespread crop damage and triggered hours-long blackouts.

While temperatures as high as 50 degrees Celsius (122 Fahrenheit) are unbearable in any condition, the damage is made worse for those of India's 1.4 billion population who are stuck in tightly packed cities and don't have access to well-ventilated housing or air-conditioning.

"Heat stress for humans is a combination of temperature and humidity," said Kieran Hunt, a climate scientist at the University of Reading who has studied the country's weather patterns. "India is typically more humid than equivalently hot places, like the Sahara. This means sweating is less efficient, or not efficient at all."

This is why in India a measurement known as the wet-bulb reading - which combines air temperature and relative humidity - provides a better gauge of heat stress on the human body. A November report by the World Bank cautioned that India could become one of the first places in the world where wet-bulb temperatures could soar past the survivability threshold of 35 C.

"The question is, have we got inured to heat-led suffering?" said Abhas Jha, one of the report's authors. "Because it's not a sudden onset disaster, because it's a slow onset, we don't push back on it."

While no country is untouched by global warming, there are multiple reasons that make India an outlier. The following interview with Hunt, which examines those factors, has been edited for length and clarity.

What's the climate science behind India's more intense heat waves?

It helps to separate heat wave temperatures into two parts - the background, or the monthly average temperature, and the anomaly, or the the bit added or subtracted by the specific weather occurring at the time. Over India, since the pre-industrial period, the background has increased by about 1.5 C. Therefore, everything else being equal, the heat wave weather patterns today would be associated with temperatures about 1.5 C warmer than had they occurred a hundred years ago. There are other compounding factors: over some cities, the urban heat island effect has added roughly an additional 2 C to the background. Deforestation also contributes.

Why are they happening more frequently?

This can also be split into two parts. Firstly, the Indian government's definition of a heat wave is fixed, so as background temperatures increase, less and less strong anomalies are required to surpass the heat wave definition threshold. Secondly, it does appear that the weather patterns - high pressure over north India, leading to dry, sunny, clear conditions with weak wind - associated with these anomalies are also increasing in frequency.

And what makes them more dangerous?

Hotter heat waves, where the temperatures stay higher for longer, tend to result in more fatalities. In India, this is exacerbated by the rapid population increase over the last few decades.

[The danger lies with] India's background temperature already being so high. In May, for example, the only places on the planet comparable in temperature to north India are the Sahara and parts of the inland Arabian peninsula, both of which are very sparsely populated. With the background temperatures already being so high, over 40 C, even small increases are likely to push close to human survival limits.

How do the heat waves affect people?

There are wide-ranging effects on Indian society. Extended periods of heat waves lead to significant drying of soil over large regions. Aside from the obvious agricultural implications, this can impact the monsoon onset a month later... and can negatively affect agriculture, water security, and even lead to localized flooding, where heavy rain hits dry soil that is unable to absorb it.

Unusually hot pre-monsoon periods are also associated with decreased labor productivity, particularly in outdoor sectors such as agriculture and construction; increased demand for cooling, which can strain the power grid and lead to increased greenhouse gas emissions; and general health risks, such as heatstroke, which disproportionately affect children, the elderly, and low-income communities.

So what can be done to mitigate the damage?

Some ideas that are often talked about in this context are, on the policy level, implementing urban planning guidelines that prioritize green spaces, shade, and ventilation in building design. These are becoming increasingly popular in many Mediterranean cities. At the corporate level: invest in research and development of low-energy cooling solutions, such as passive cooling systems, and promote energy-efficient building design. And for communities, encourage the use of cool roofs, green roofs, and tree planting to reduce the urban heat island effect.

What does the future look like for India as the planet keeps warming?

At the moment, India very occasionally slightly surpasses [a wet-bulb temperature of] 32 C, so we need quite a lot more warming to get to the survivability limit. That said, with increased urbanization, and so urban heat island effect, and more warming, the risks of fatal heatwaves are always growing.

Urgent Climate Action Needed To Limit Warming To 1.5 Degrees: UN Report

INTERLAKEN, March 21: The world is very likely to miss the most important climate target of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels but drastic and urgent action in this decade can prevent it, a UN panel on climate change said in a report on Monday.

India welcomed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Synthesis Report, saying it endorses the country's call for equity and climate justice.

The Synthesis Report is a summary of all the reports the IPCC produced since 2015 on the reasons and consequences of global temperature rise due to anthropogenic emissions.

Releasing the report, the body of the world's leading climate scientists said keeping warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels requires deep, rapid and sustained greenhouse gas emissions reductions in all sectors.

"A resilient, liveable future is still available to us, but actions taken in this decade to deliver deep, rapid and sustained emissions cuts represent a rapidly narrowing window for humanity to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius with minimal or no overshoot. If we delay action, losses and damages will rise, and additional human and natural systems will reach adaptation limits," it said.

"Humanity is on thin ice - and that ice is melting fast... The climate time-bomb is ticking. But today's IPCC report is a how-to guide to defuse the climate time-bomb. It is a survival guide for humanity. The 1.5-degree limit is achievable. But it will take a quantum leap in climate action," UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said in a video address.

"This report is a clarion call to massively fast-track climate efforts by every country and every sector and on every timeframe. Our world needs climate action on all fronts: everything, everywhere, all at once," he said.

Guterres urged rich countries to reach net zero by 2040 and developing countries to aim for 2050.

He called for phasing out of coal by 2030 in OECD countries and 2040 elsewhere.

"The Synthesis Report underscores the urgency of taking more ambitious action and shows that, if we act now, we can still secure a liveable sustainable future for all," IPCC Chair Hoesung Lee said.

Approved during a week-long session in Interlaken, Switzerland, the report underlined that the "10 per cent of households with the highest emissions per person contribute 34 45 per cent of all household emissions, while the bottom 50 per cent contribute just 13 to 15 per cent."

Union Environment Minister Bhupender Yadav said the report echoes the vision of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 'Mission LiFE' (lifestyle for environment) which calls for a global mass movement for inducing behavioural changes focused on "mindful and deliberate utilization" of resources.

He said climate scientists confirmed that financial support from developed to developing countries is a critical enabler of climate action highlighting that current flows are inadequate. "This includes the promised-but-never-received USD 100 billion." Mobilising and enhancing access to finance, particularly for developing countries, vulnerable regions, sectors and groups, and aligning finance flows for climate action need to be consistent with ambition levels and funding needs, the climate scientists said.

The report stressed that fossil fuel use is overwhelmingly driving global warming. In 2019, around 79 per cent of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions came from energy, industry, transport and buildings, and 22 per cent came from agriculture, forestry and other land use.

"The report brings into sharp focus the losses and damages we are already experiencing and will continue into the future, hitting the most vulnerable people and ecosystems especially hard," the IPCC said in a statement.

Taking the right action now could result in the transformational change essential for a sustainable, equitable world, it said.

"Climate justice is crucial because those who have contributed least to climate change are being disproportionately affected," said Aditi Mukherji, one of the 93 authors of the Synthesis Report, the closing chapter of the panel's sixth assessment.

"Almost half of the world's population lives in regions that are highly vulnerable to climate change. In the last decade, deaths from floods, droughts and storms were 15 times higher in highly vulnerable regions," she added.

Emissions should be decreasing by now and will need to be cut by almost half by 2030, if warming is to be limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the IPCC said.

Around 3.3-3.6 billion people are highly vulnerable to climate change. They are 15 times more likely to die from floods, droughts and storms.

Some ecosystems are getting close to a point of no return, caused by impacts such as glacier retreat and arctic permafrost thaw, the report said.

Climate change has reduced food security and affected water security, and extreme heat events are driving up death rates and disease. Increasing temperatures, trauma from extreme events and losses of livelihoods and culture are leading to mental health challenges, it said.

"In this report, we talk of loss and damages to biodiversity, livelihood, water security, energy security etc. So it must be every country's priority to minimize the loss and damage to this.

"It is especially important for India as we have a large number of vulnerable populations, low-income groups, informal settlements in urban cities, and outdoor workers," said Prof Joyashree Roy, Energy Economics programme, Asian Institute of Technology, and one of the authors of the report.

Rise In Ocean Plastic Pollution 'Unprecedented' Since 2005: Study

PARIS, March 9: Plastic pollution in the world's oceans has reached "unprecedented levels" over the past 15 years, a new study has found, calling for a legally binding international treaty to stop the harmful waste.

Ocean plastic pollution is a persistent problem around the globe -- animals may become entangled in larger pieces of plastic like fishing nets, or ingest microplastics that eventually enter the food chain to be consumed by humans.

Research published on Wednesday found that there are an estimated 170 trillion pieces of plastic, mainly microplastics, on the surface of the world's oceans today, much of it discarded since 2005.

"Plastic pollution in the world's oceans during the past 15 years has reached unprecedented levels," said the study, published in open-access journal PLOS One.

The amounts were higher than previous estimates, and the study found that the rate of plastic entering the oceans could accelerate several-fold in the coming decades if left unchecked.

Researchers took plastic samples from over 11,000 stations around the world focusing on a 40-year period between 1979 and 2019.

They found no trends until 1990, then a fluctuation in trends between 1990 and 2005. After that, the samples skyrocket.

"We see a really rapid increase since 2005 because there is a rapid increase in production and also a limited number of policies that are controlling the release of plastic into the ocean," said contributing author Lisa Erdle.

The sources of plastic pollution in the ocean are numerous.

Fishing gear like nets and buoys often end up in the middle of the ocean, dumped or dropped by accident, while things like clothing, car tyres and single-use plastics often pollute nearer to the coast.

They eventually break down into microplastics, which Erdle said can look like "confetti on the surface of the ocean".

On current trends, plastic use will nearly double from 2019 across G20 countries by 2050, reaching 451 million tonnes each year, according to the report, jointly produced by Economist Impact and The Nippon Foundation.

In 1950, only two million tonnes of plastic were produced worldwide.

Recycling, even in countries with advanced waste management systems, has done little to help the pollution problem since just a small percentage of plastics are properly recycled and much often ending up in landfills instead.

If landfills are not properly managed, plastic waste can leech into the environment, eventually making its way to oceans.

"We really we see a lack of recycling, a flood of toxic products and packaging," Erdle said.

The rates of plastic waste were seen to recede at some points between 1990 and 2005, in part because there were some effective policies in place to control pollution.

That includes the 1988 MARPOL treaty, a legally binding agreement among 154 countries to end the discharge of plastics from naval, fishing and shipping fleets.

But with so much more plastic being produced today, the study's authors said a new, wide-ranging treaty is needed to not only reduce plastic production and use but also better manage its disposal.

"Environmental recovery of plastic has limited merit, so solution strategies must address those systems that restrict emissions of plastic pollution in the first place," the study said.

Last year, 175 nations agreed to end plastic pollution under a legally binding United Nations agreement that could be finalised as soon as next year.

Among the key actions under negotiation are a global ban on single-use plastics, a "polluter pays" scheme, and a tax on new plastic production.

The total weight of the plastic pollution detected in the ocean today is estimated at 2.3 million tonnes, the PLOS study said.

It examined samples in the North Atlantic, the South Atlantic, the North Pacific, the South Pacific, the Indian and Mediterranean oceans.

Parts Of Kerala Experiencing Heat Index Above 54 Degrees: Report

Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala: Kerala which experienced extreme rain a few months ago is now battling severe heat conditions with the temperatures shooting up to unprecedented levels.
The summer clock in the coastal state has just started ticking and already the daily heat index is showing an alarming trend.

According to a report prepared by the Kerala State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA) on Thursday, certain areas in the southern state have recorded a heat index of more than 54 degree Celsius, which can cause serious health risks and imminent heat stroke chances.

Heat index is a pointer towards the heat one experiences with the combined effect of atmospheric temperature and humidity. Many developed countries use the heat index to record the 'feels like temperature' in order to issue public health warnings.

According to it, the southern tip of Thiruvananthapuram district and certain areas in Alappuzha, Kottayam, and Kannur districts have a 'feel like temperature' of more than 54 degree Celsius.

Major areas of Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Alappuzha, Kottayam, Ernakulam, Kozhikode, and Kannur also recorded a heat index of 45-54 degree Celsius on Thursday. Prolonged exposure and activity in these places could lead to heat stroke.

Generally, the whole of Kasaragod, Kozhikode, Malappuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta and Ernakulam is having a heat index of 40-45 degrees Celsius which can lead to fatigue if one has prolonged exposure to the sun.

Only a few patches of hill districts of Idukki and Wayanad are having a heat index of below 29 degree Celsius.

Contrary to the common trend during summer, Palakkad is experiencing lesser torment from the summer this year so far, with the district having a heat index of 30-40 degree Celsius. Most of the Idukki district is also in the same range.

As temperatures are soaring in State, the KSDMA prepares this heat index map using the automatic weather mapping facilities of Indian Mateorological Department (IMD).

The IMD Thiruvananthapuram has refused to comment on this report.

The health authorities have requested people to take extra care while going out and also to hydrate themselves well to save themselves from the sweltering heat.

El Nino Likely To Return, May Fuel Spike In Global Temperatures: UN Agency

LONDON, March 3: A warming El Nino event may develop in the coming months, according to a new update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The El Nino event may develop after three consecutive years of an unusually stubborn and protracted La Nina, which influenced temperature and rainfall patterns in different parts of the world, WMO said in a statement.

However, while the return of El Nino is considered likely this will be proceeded by a period of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions, with 90 per cent probability, during March-May, the statement said.

The likelihood of ENSO neutral conditions continuing beyond May decreases slightly but remains high, with 80 per cent likelihood in April-June and 60 per cent in May-July, based on the model predictions and assessment from experts involved in producing the Update, it said.

The chances of El Nino developing, while low in the first half of the year, 15 per cent in April-June, gradually increases to 35 per cent in May-July, the statement said.

Long-lead forecasts for June-August indicate a much higher chance, 55 per cent, of El Nino developing but are subject to high uncertainty associated with predictions this time of the year, the so-called spring predictability barrier, it said.

"The first triple-dip La Nina of the 21st century is finally coming to an end. La Nina's cooling effect put a temporary brake on rising global temperatures, even though the past eight year period was the warmest on record," said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.

"If we do now enter an El Nino phase, this is likely to fuel another spike in global temperatures," said Taalas.

The year 2016 is currently the warmest on record because of the combination of El Nino and climate change.

There is a 93 percent likelihood of at least one year until 2026 being the warmest on record. There is also a 50:50 chance of the global temperature temporarily reaching 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial era, according to a study last year by the UK's Met Office, which is WMO's lead centre for annual to decadal climate predictions.

The current La Nina began in September 2020 with a brief break in the boreal summer of 2021.

La Nina refers to the large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation.

It usually has the opposite impacts on weather and climate as El Nino in affected regions.

La Nina has been associated with the persistent drought in the Greater Horn of Africa and large parts of South America as well as above average rainfall in South East Asia and Australasia.

The El Nino and La Nina phenomenon occurs naturally. But it is taking place against a background of human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures, affecting seasonal rainfall patterns, and making our weather more extreme.

El Nino and La Nina are major, but not the only, drivers of the Earth's climate system.

In addition to the long-established ENSO Update, WMO now also issues regular Global Seasonal Climate Updates (GSCU), which incorporate influences of the other major climate drivers such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole.

A return to near-normal ENSO conditions is predicted for the equatorial central and eastern Pacific, and warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures are generally predicted over other oceanic regions.

This contributes to widespread prediction of above-normal temperatures over land areas, according to the GSCU.

Even though La Nina is coming to an end we are likely to see latent impacts for some time to come and therefore some of the canonical rainfall impacts of La Nina may still continue.

The lingering impacts of multi-year La Nina is basically due to its long duration, and continuous circulation anomaly, which are different from the single-peak La Nina event.

India Forecasts Heat Waves After Hottest February Since 1901

NEW DELHI, Feb 28: India will face hotter weather over the coming months, stoking concern about a repeat of the intense heat wave last year that risks damaging crops and further straining the country's power network.

The weather office expects an enhanced probability of heat waves in most parts of the country during the three months ending May 31, according to S.C. Bhan, a senior scientist at India's meteorological department.

An early onset of hot weather has already pushed electricity demand to near-record levels and led to the farm ministry setting up a panel to monitor the impact on the wheat crop, which is expected to reach a record this year. Last year, India suffered its hottest March in more than a century, scorching the grain harvest and forcing the government to curb exports.

Monthly average maximum temperatures across the country were the highest for February since 1901, according to the weather office. Temperatures in March - crucial for the wheat crop which is at a vulnerable stage - are likely to be above normal in most parts except in the peninsular region.

Prolonged heat could cut India's wheat production for a second straight year, hurting efforts to control local food costs. India is the second-biggest producer, just after China. Lower output may lead to a continuation of export curbs, keeping the global market tight.

India is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. More extreme weather events such as heat waves, heavy flooding and severe drought kill thousands every year and increase economic hardships by eroding farm productivity. At the same time, it burdens the country's energy supplies by pushing demand for fossil fuels and drying up sources of hydropower.

Power plants that run on imported coal have already been asked to operate at full capacity for three months during summer to help avoid blackouts and ease pressure on domestic supplies. Generators are producing more electricity to meet rising demand from air conditioners and irrigation pumps.

The number of Indian states hit by heat waves since 2015 more than doubled to 23 by 2020. The country describes heat wave as a period of abnormally high temperatures, more than the normal maximum temperature that occurs during the hot weather season.

Ozone layer recovery is on track, helping avoid global warming by 0.5°C

NAIROBI, Jan 9: The ozone layer is on track to recover within four decades, with the global phaseout of ozone-depleting chemicals already benefitting efforts to mitigate climate change.

This is the conclusion of a UN-backed panel of experts, presented today at the American Meteorological Society’s 103rd annual meeting. Examining novel technologies such as geoengineering for the first time, the panel warns of unintended impacts on the ozone layer.

The UN-backed Scientific Assessment Panel to the Montreal Protocol on Ozone Depleting Substances quadrennial assessment report, published every four years, confirms the phase out of nearly 99% of banned ozone-depleting substances. The Montreal Protocol has thus succeeded in safeguarding the ozone layer, leading to notable recovery of the ozone layer in the upper stratosphere and decreased human exposure to harmful ultraviolet (UV) rays from the sun.

If current policies remain in place, the ozone layer is expected to recover to 1980 values (before the appearance of the ozone hole) by around 2066 over the Antarctic, by 2045 over the Arctic and by 2040 for the rest of the world. Variations in the size of the Antarctic ozone hole, particularly between 2019 and 2021, were driven largely by meteorological conditions. Nevertheless, the Antarctic ozone hole has been slowly improving in area and depth since the year 2000.

“That ozone recovery is on track according to the latest quadrennial report is fantastic news. The impact the Montreal Protocol has had on climate change mitigation cannot be overstressed. Over the last 35 years, the Protocol has become a true champion for the environment,” said Meg Seki, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Environment Programme’s Ozone Secretariat. “The assessments and reviews undertaken by the Scientific Assessment Panel remain a vital component of the work of the Protocol that helps inform policy and decision makers.”

The 10th edition of the Scientific Assessment Panel reaffirms the positive impact that the treaty has already had for the climate. An additional 2016 agreement, known as the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, requires phase down of production and consumption of many hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). HFCs do not directly deplete ozone, but are powerful climate climate change gases. The Scientific Assessment Panel said this amendment is estimated to avoid 0.3–0.5°C of warming by 2100 (this does not include contributions from HFC-23 emissions).

“Ozone action sets a precedent for climate action. Our success in phasing out ozone-eating chemicals shows us what can and must be done – as a matter of urgency – to transition away from fossil fuels, reduce greenhouse gases and so limit temperature increase,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.

The latest assessment has been made based on extensive studies, research and data compiled by a large international group of experts , including many from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and European Union.

For the first time, the Scientific Assessment Panel examined the potential effects on ozone of the intentional addition of aerosols into the stratosphere, known as stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI). SAI has been proposed as a potential method to reduce climate warming by increasing sunlight reflection. Yet the panel cautions that unintended consequences of SAI “could also affect stratospheric temperatures, circulation and ozone production and destruction rates and transport.”

Extreme warm temperature in January shatters records across Europe

LONDON, Jan 4: The warmest January day ever was recorded in at least eight European countries, including Poland, Denmark, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, Belarus, Lithuania, and Latvia. Weather records have been falling across Europe at a disconcerting rate in the last few days, meteorologists told The Guardian.

According to data collated by Maximiliano Herrera, a climatologist who tracks extreme temperatures, the temperature hit 19°C in Korbielów, Poland, which is the kind of temperature the village is more used to in May. Further, the recorded temperature is also 18°C above the 1°C annual average for January.

In Czech Republic's Javornik, the temperature was 19.6°C, compared with an average of 3°C for this time of year. In Belarus too, the mercury which usually hovers around zero in January hit 16.4°C on Sunday beating the country’s previous record January high by 4.5°C.

Elsewhere on the continent, Germany, northern Spain, and south of France also reported record high temperatures for January. Only Norway, Britain, Ireland, Italy, and the south-east Mediterranean posted no records.