Seven Swing States Could Decide Presidential Race Outcome

By Deepak Arora

NEW YORK, Nov 3: The Seven swing states are expected to decide the presidential race outcome beween Vice President Kamala Harris and ex-president Donald Trump.

These key states include Pennsylvania (19 Electoral votes), North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), and Nevada (6), collectively totaling 93 Electoral College votes.

A candidate needs at least 270 out of 538 Electoral votes to win the election.

Polls in these states will close between 7pm and 10pm Eastern Time (00:00 to 03:00 GMT).

Some of the first results will likely come from Georgia, where state law requires that all early votes be counted and reported by 8pm Eastern Time (01:00 GMT) on election night.

North Carolina follows. In this state, votes will be counted and reported throughout the evening, with complete results anticipated by midnight (04:00 GMT).

In 2020, Nevada was slow, and the state was not called until five days after election day. Since then, the rules have changed, and the process is expected to move faster this time. Still, the results might not be known on election night. The state allows late-arriving mail ballots, so it could take days until we know the final results.

Pennsylvania, one of the most important battleground states, did not have a clear winner in 2020 for four days after Election Day. The state is one of only a few that do not allow election workers to begin processing mail ballots until Election Day, which means it will likely take several days before the results are known.

In Michigan, the counting could be faster than in previous elections, as it now allows officials to begin processing mail ballots before Election Day, but we do not have a clear time yet for when the state might be called.

In Arizona, officials can begin processing mail ballots as soon as they are received. First results are expected to be reported at about 10pm Eastern Time (03:00 GMT), one hour after the polls close.

Finally, in Wisconsin, poll workers cannot begin processing ballots until Election Day, which means there could also be delays, similar to Pennsylvania. According to a CNN report, results are not likely until Wednesday.

What happens if there is a tie?

If there is a 269-269 tie or a third-party candidate wins Electoral votes, preventing any candidate from reaching 270 votes, the step that follows is known as a “contingent election”.

A contingent election is the process that takes place when the US House of Representatives decides the winner. Each state’s delegation in the House casts one vote, and a candidate must receive a majority of the state delegation votes to win.

The US Senate would then choose the vice president with each senator casting one vote and a simple majority (51 votes) required to win.

There have been three instances of contingent elections in the US, in 1801, 1825 and 1837. The closest election in recent years was the 2000 presidential contest, when George W Bush won 271 Electoral College votes – just one more than he needed – after a controversial recount in Florida. Outgoing Vice President Al Gore won 266 Electoral College votes.

In the last election in 2020, the results were announced four days after the election on November 3, once Pennsylvania’s results were confirmed. In the previous election in 2016, Hillary Clinton conceded to Donald Trump the morning after the election.

In the 2020 election, some states went through what is known as a “red mirage”, with Trump appearing to lead when the initial votes were counted on election night. A “blue shift” took place as additional, mail-in votes were counted, and President Joe Biden took the lead.